Friday, 12 June 2020

Vodafone Idea Share Gains On Stake Sale Reports. Should You Invest?

Vodafone Idea share prices surged after news reports emerged that Google was looking to acquire about 5% stake in the telecom company which is a joint venture between Aditya Birla group of India and Vodafone UK.  The merger between Indian arm of Vodafone Group and Idea Cellular was completed on August 31, 2018.
As a result, Vodafone Idea shares witnessed renewed buying interest from retail investors eager to capitalize on any potential gains which could accrue in the Vodafone Idea share prices in the coming days.
However, after BSE sought a clarification from the company, Vodafone Idea issued a statement stating that “Currently, there is no proposal as reported by the media that is being considered at the Board”.

Why Google may still be interested in Vodafone Idea and the impact of the potential deal on Vodafone Idea share price

Google’s interest in purchasing a stake in Vodafone Idea is unconfirmed at this stage. So, it is very difficult to comment on the outcome of the same now. However, given the fact that India is the second-largest telecom market in the world with an estimated size of over US$ 103.9 billion, every tech giant would want a pie of it.
The move if true could be part of Google's strategy to foray into India's booming mobile sector, in a similar line with Facebook which recently acquired 10 per cent stake in Mukesh Ambani's Jio Platform. ‘Consumer+Digital’ is considered the new gold today and Mukesh Ambani led Reliance Industries is one of the first companies in India to create a robust infrastructure with colossal access to it. 
Facebook’s investment in Reliance Jio gives it access to one of the biggest markets in the world that too, with one of the biggest telecom service companies that is driving the same market. 
Google’s potential investment in Vodafone, if it happens could be viewed as an attempt to create the next big connected digital ecosystem in India and capitalize on the new gold, i.e. 'Consumer + Digital'.
In a post-Covid-19 world, India could witness a sharp surge in online shopping with changing consumer mindsets and social distancing and safety taking precedence. 

While investing don't look at the Vodafone Idea share price, look at the company.

Legendary investor Peter Lynch has always advocated that while investing, an investor should look at the company and what it does rather than looking at the share price.
This certainly is the best advice any investor should consider before investing in Vodafone Idea shares.
Vodafone Idea is currently a debt-laden company with its net debt amounting to over Rs 1.03 lakh crore and over Rs 51,000 crore of balance AGR dues. After paying the principal amount, Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues amount to Rs 21,533 crore.
The telecom sector in India where Vodafone Idea operates has wafer-thin margins due to high operational costs and spectrum costs.
Vodafone Idea share prices have fallen significantly in the last few years. Any stake sale at this point of time by the company to a cash-rich company like Google will bring in the much-needed relief to the company and help in reducing Vodafone Idea’s debt to some extent.
However, from a long-term investor’s perspective, there are simply too many red flags at this point. Few months back at an event, the chairman of the company, Kumar Mangalam Birla had said that the company may have to shut down going ahead in the absence of government relief, sought by the company. Even if the stake sale deal does take place, it might take a long time for the Vodafone Idea share price to recover and reach those levels where it was trading at the time when the merger between Vodafone and Idea took place.
There are many better investment opportunities available in the market currently, which have the potential to grow your wealth at a faster pace. Our detailed research can help you to invest in those untapped opportunities for wealth creation. 

Sunday, 7 June 2020

Why is Nifty Rising? – Factors Lifting the Market Momentum

This week turned out quite good for Indian benchmark indices and particularly investors who are invested in the stock market. The market has bounced back more than 40 per cent from recent lows of March month. When everybody fall victim of COVID-19 crisis, the market experts suggested to be cautious in the current market and avoid bulk buying. There is no good news in the market at all. Yet financial markets are going higher as if there is nothing to worry about. On one side, the benchmark index NIFTY50 finally reclaimed the psychological level of 10,000 the BSE-SENSEX also climbed above 34,000 levels.

It may seem surprising to a lot of people but it ain’t surprising at all. Historically it has happened before almost after every major crisis. But, that’s not the only reason. Other factors are also lifting the market momentum which we’re going to discuss below:

Global Rally

It’s been a few days when the domestic indices are reacting to positive global peers. The global market remained strong today as well, despite the George Floyd killing, the US Market remained strong where its major indices Dow Jones, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 were trading on the higher note as the investors started looking beyond lockdown and coronavirus, towards the economic recovery. The gradual reopening of economies after easing lockdown measures boosted the investors’ confidence
Asian peers also recovered quite much in a few days. The European market, too, was strong where its major indices FTSE100, DAX, and CAC40 were closed in green.

Ease in Lockdown

In lockdown 5.0, the government allowed the economic activities in all regions except containment zones. The lockdown 5.0 was not the extension of full lockdown and malls, hotels, restaurants, schools, colleges, institutions, etc., all have been allowed to open in a phased manner over the next couple of months.
However, the private companies and industries still cannot work at full capacity due to social distancing rule but the ease in lockdowns lifted the market sentiment bringing liquidity in the market.

Banking & Financials

The rally in banking & financials significantly contributed to lifting the market sentiment. The recent rally in Bank Nifty indicates the optimism for continuation in operating activities in the banking sector even with less capacity.
The execution of financial packages for MSMEs, SMEs, NBFCs etc. already begun by the banks. Stocks like Bajaj Finserv and Bajaj Finance which hit hard during the lockdown period gained more than 5 per cent in the last couple of days.

Monsoon

The monsoon reached the country on June 01 which is a matter of relief for farmers, investors and especially Indian government as the agriculture contribute more around 17-18 per cent in Indian GDP will be pleased from the timely monsoon in India. At a time when the country is going through an economic crisis, the value of monsoon increases way further. Monsoon is like nectar in agriculture.
The timely monsoon this year boosted investors’ sentiment as production could be strong which would be important to increase the pace of economic recovery in the country.

Thursday, 4 June 2020

Crude At $30, A Dream Of 'Self-Reliant' India. What It Means?

The current Covid-19 crisis is a significant eye-opener for most countries across the world, including India. It has shown why it's time for India to reduce or eliminate its dependency on other countries and instead become self-reliant making full use of our domestic potential.
However, there are two aspects to this. Firstly, those things which India has no choice but to be dependent on other nations such as oil. Secondly, those areas where India can stop depending on other countries by becoming self-reliant.
First, let's take a look at the first aspect, i.e. oil. Covid-19 has hammered the Indian economy badly. But even in these difficult times, if there is one bright spot for India, it is low oil prices.
India is one of the largest importers of crude oil in the world, importing almost 85 per cent of its oil. According to publicly available data, India imported 4.5 mb/d of crude oil between April 2019 to January 2020 compared to the same period a year ago.
So, any significant fall in oil prices like what we are witnessing currently will be hugely beneficial to India in multiple ways such as:

Reduction in India’s current account balance and lower import bill

A fall in oil price in the range of $30 per barrel means a much lower import bill which will help in reducing India's current account deficit by a greater extent. As per a report by Livemint, every fall in oil prices by $10 per barrel helps reduce the current account deficit by $9.2 billion, which amounts to nearly 0.43% of the GDP.

Low inflation & lower input costs for several industries

Higher oil prices mean higher transportation costs which indirectly increases the prices of all goods and services. Hence, a fall in global crude prices is highly beneficial for India in the form of low inflation.
Low oil prices are highly beneficial for the transport and aviation industry as it can help them to cut down their expenses significantly. Besides, it will also result in lower input costs for companies in which use crude oil or its by-products as raw materials.
As India faces its most significant economic challenge in the form of Covid-19, the government is doing its best to utilise global low oil prices to its advantage by building up its strategic reserves with cheap oil to the tune of over 32 million tonnes.
Now let's take a look at the government's dream of making India self-reliant.
To make India self-reliant, the government under the leadership of PM Modi has announced a stimulus package of ₹20 lakh crore which includes structural reforms in areas like agriculture and manufacturing aimed at attracting investments into the country.
The primary objective of this entire campaign is to ramp up domestic production and create supply chains to meet internal demands. At the same time, PM Modi also asked people to be vocal for local, i.e. buy domestic products that would, in turn, strengthen Indian industry and give rise to strong Indian brands which could then make a mark in the international market.
To boost the MSME sector, the government has revised the definition of MSME to include the maximum number of MSMEs which can be covered under the government benefits and avail access to collateral-free automatic loans to small businesses and MSMEs. Besides this government has also introduced several other policy moves/reforms related to Ease of Doing Business, market access, debt finance, and liquidity.
Under the Self-Reliant India package, the government has created a new public sector enterprise policy, introduced commercial licensing in the coal sector and increased the FDI limit in the defence sector from 49% to 74%. Government has also opened the space sector to private investment under which private players can collaborate with the department of space in specific projects.
While India ranks among the top countries in some sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automobiles and IT/IT-enabled services, the new measures under the Self-Reliant India package will open a large part of the previously restricted economic sectors to the participation of private industry.
The government has identified 12 sectors, such as food processing; organic farming; iron; aluminium and copper; agrochemicals; electronics; industrial machinery; furniture; leather and shoes; auto parts; textiles; and coveralls, masks, sanitisers and ventilators to make India a self-reliant country as well as a global supplier.
Yes, it might take some time. However, as seen in the past, government efforts to introduce new radical reforms in various sectors have shown some wonderful results. To give you an example by opening up the market and giving farmers more choices, the government has not only changed the way agricultural commodities are now marketed in India, but it has also limited the role of intermediaries and boosted the income of farmers.
Government’s dream of a self-reliant India will not happen overnight and will take some time. But yes, with a strong government at the centre and serious intent to get things done we can expect to see some results in the coming years. And when it does India will become a global production centre.

Wednesday, 3 June 2020

Stock Market News Is Dangerous For Your Wealth

Do you know why the Titanic sank? Considered to be an unsinkable ship, the mighty Titanic sank after hitting the tip of the iceberg.
But was it really the tip of the iceberg which sank it? No, the Titanic sank because of damage that came from below the surface, i.e., damage the crew failed to see.
While only 1% of the iceberg was visible on the surface of the ocean, 99% of the iceberg was invisible and lay beneath the water. Investing based on news is exactly like that. Often only 1% of it is visible and the rest 99% is not.
I often come across a lot of people who invest only on the basis of stock market news.  And this makes them more traders, rather than investors who invest on the basis the fundamental strength of the company.
Don’t you agree?
In the business world there is a popular saying "Bad news is usually good news-for somebody else". This is so true especially in the case of share market news. 

Beware of deliberately fabricated stock market news

At times, fabricated stock market news is released through media by entities with vested interests because they want you to believe that news offer you some sort of a competitive advantage.

Some examples of fabricated stock market news

Often, we hear the news of a certain company buying stake in another company.  Unless the news is really true, this may result in the price of the company’s stock prices going up temporarily and then coming down.
Let’s look at this with the help of few examples:
Example 1:
News: “Information technology giant ABC company may acquire 30% stake in XYZ company’’.
Impact: Shares of XYZ company will increase temporarily.
Later when ABC company issues a clarification that there is no such plan, share of XYZ company falls.
Example 2:
News: “Pharma giant DBC company very close to developing vaccine for Covid 19”
Impact: Again, the shares of DBC company are likely to rise as many will invest anticipating a rise in the company’s share price.
However, in the event of DBC company not being able develop the vaccine or failure at clinical trial stage may lead the investors to dump the stock.
From the above examples, it is quite clear that many a times, fabricated news is deliberately released with vested interests. Many fall for that and end up with the wrong investments and erosion of capital.

Investing based on stock market news can be dangerous for your financial health

A series of experiments by a psychologist named Paul Andreessen has revealed the perils of investing based on stock market news.
His experiments have shown that paying close attention to stock market news can cause investors to trade a lot and to earn lower returns than those who stay away from the news. According to him, the situation it is getting worse day by day since everyone has access to the share market news instantaneously with round the clock news.

Ignore share market news to become a successful investor

So, if you are investing for a long term, you should largely ignore the daily stock market news.
Why? Because that’s that successful investors do. The best example of this is none other than the legendry investor Warren Buffett, who prefers to remain far away from the commotion at Wall Street.I am sure you know how overhyped the news are, these days. Besides, the stock market news that you come across is something which already occurred. This means markets would have already factored in the news to the stock price, so how is it going to benefit your investments?
If you want to become a successful investor, you can safely ignore the stock market news and stick to fundamental analysis-based investing because that is what gives you an idea of the company’s financial health and it’s potential to create wealth for you.

Tuesday, 21 April 2020

Crash of Oil market and its Impact on India

April 20, 2020, was a historical day when one of the most desired commodities - that has triggered wars - entered into a negative price zone.The question is what led to this negative price and does this have any relevance to physical markets and consumer countries like India?First, we need to understand the reasons that led to the possibility of a negative price for oil.
Physical oil market
1. If we look at the physical market, there is a fall in demand for oil by 20 million barrels per day due to global shutdown. A major factor of demand drop is that most airlines are running minimum operations, estimating a 45 percent drop in jet fuel demand by the second quarter.
2. OPEC+ involving G20 countries agreed on cutting off 9.7 million barrels per day that would translate to only 7.2 mn bbl/day.
3. Physical capacity to store oil globally is running out at a very high speed that led to force majeure being declared by global and Indian refineries.

US oil futures market
1. On April 15, 2020, CME (largest commodity trading exchange) issued an advisory that certain NYMEX futures could trade at negative or zero prices and also settle at negative or zero prices due to the current oil market environment.
2. On April 16, the US Commodity Funds that manages the United States Oil Fund (largest oil ETF), with an asset size of $3.9 billion, says it will shift to the later date future (two-month future) from 100 percent near month future (1-month future). A 20 percent of assets were to shift on April 17, 2020, and rest in foreseeable future.
3. WTI futures delivery is taken at Cushing, Oklahoma, where the capacity was filling up fast. It was at 77 percent capacity as of April 17.
Result of events on April 20
As per the settlement cycle, May futures were to expire on April 21 and the changes made in USO resulted in major issue that would otherwise go smoothly as the rollover of futures do not have high rollover cost.
But due to the changes, most of liquidity of the May future evaporated post April 17 and there were a large number of contracts outstanding.
Chart 1
This resulted in heavy liquidation of May Future on April 20, with low buying interest that made prices go to -38/bbl. But the benchmark and USO funds have already shifted majority assets to June futures that still fell 15 percent on April 20 but traded at around $21/bbl as seen below.
Chart 2
Due to the shift in asset allocation to June futures, USO saw a drop of 10 percent in NAV as compared to a drop of 300 percent in WTI May futures.
Chart 3
What to expect now?
Though WTI May futures expire on April 21, there will still be volatility in prices. But this does not mean that June futures do not have a scope of a similar situation.
Three factors that will impact June futures and WTI prices:
1. USO will start reallocate its assets on May 5th-8th to July futures as the policy shifts to have assets in later date contracts.
2. Storage capacity of futures deliveries at Cushing is almost full and physical global market capacity is also running out, with production cut to become effective only in second half of May even if all the countries speed up the process.
3. Investors of USO have seen a large destruction of wealth in the last two days, there will be heavy redemptions in the ETF that will impact future outstanding contracts the next day. USO accounts for 30 percent of outstanding contracts of WTI June Futures.
How does it impact India?
Though it is obvious that India will benefit from such a situation, given that it is second-biggest oil consumer but the current environment of a lockdown does not help take the advantage even if we reopen soon.
The current import of oil has reduced by almost 50 percent in volume to 2.3 mn bbl/day from 4.2 mn bbl/day. This will take a long time to normalise for the benefit to reflect.
Indian Oil Corporation along with other major refineries have declared force majeure for some oil purchase contracts.
Fuel demand was 50 percent down in the first two weeks of April, led by 61 percent fall in petrol, 64 percent fall in diesel and 94 percent fall in ATF. This has resulted in OMCs to keep the price unchanged during the lockdown period where global fuel prices are below $1 per gallon.
India Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is only 37 million barrels that is equivalent to 13-16 days usage at current rate of consumption.
Crude prices to remain low with further downside risk as the demand side will take a long time to recover. But we disagree that India will not benefit much from these prices as the import volumes are also impacted by a large portion.

Monday, 23 March 2020

10 Tips to Help You Be More Efficient Working From Home

Are you  an expert at working remotely? You will be if you apply these 10 simple tips to your daily routine.
Being efficient working from home can be a challenge. There are tons of distractions, less accountability, and less communication than when you’re working in the office. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. There are lots of ways to keep yourself working productively from any location.
Whether you work from home every day, a couple of times per week, or even if you’re just working from home while you recover from an illness, these tips can help you to get the most out of your remote work hours. You won’t believe how much you can get done in a day!

1. Keep yourself to regular work hours

Work From Home Clock
This is the first step to ensuring productivity while working from home. It’s tempting to give yourself total flexibility as to when you get started, take breaks, and call it a day. But you’re doing yourself a disservice if you don’t keep yourself to at least some amount of consistency. Setting yourself consistent hours keeps you accountable to yourself and to your boss. It makes you more likely to get all your work done, and it makes it easier to get in touch with you.
Here are the important factors to consider when you’re setting an at home work schedule:
  • When your boss needs you to be available
  • Communication with your coworkers and customers
  • Time of day when you are most productive
This doesn’t mean that you need to work 9-5 every day. You should work at the times of day when you’re most productive. However, it’s a good idea to find out when your boss really needs you to be at work. For example, it might be important for you to check your emails each morning, or to be available by phone in the afternoons. Other than that, choose times of day when you’re likely to get the most work done. Communicate those hours of availability to anyone that might need to get in touch with you, and you’ll be on your way to productive, consistent work days.

2. Keep work time and personal time separate

Work from Home Watch
Just as it’s important to work when you say you will, it’s important to give yourself time off when you’ve promised it. Don’t extend the work day too far beyond what you planned, at the risk of burning yourself out.
Keeping work time and personal time compartmentalized also helps you keep productive while you’re at work, and reduces stress when you aren’t at work. In the same way that you scheduled your work hours, schedule, communicate, and plan when you will not be available to work. For example, if you like to take evenings to spend time with family, make sure you communicate that you aren’t available for work during that time. And then hold yourself to that commitment!

3. Plan your workflow

Work From Home Planner
One surefire way to keep productivity up is to get smart about planning your work day. Before you even start working, make sure you know what your priorities are for the day, how long you think it will take you to get everything done, and what you will work on if you have extra time.
You might find it helpful to take a few minutes before you go to bed to plan for the next day. You may find that you sleep better without the stress of planning in the back of your mind. If you find that planning before bed actually keeps you awake, try making a plan for the day while you eat breakfast or exercise before work.
In your planning, consider the following:
  • Do the highest priority tasks first
  • Plan your day around your own natural cycles–do the hardest work when you have the most energy throughout the day
  • Plan yourself rewards and breaks throughout the day

4. Break up the day

Work from home snack
If you followed the last step, then you’ll have already planned breaks for yourself throughout the day. Make sure you get up from your desk during those breaks–get some fresh air, grab a healthful snack, and talk with another human being if at all possible. All of these activities will help you reset, get your blood flowing, and make sure you’re ready to tackle the next chunk of tasks.
Try planning how you’ll spend your breaks ahead of time, so you have something to look forward to. Just make sure you decide how long you will spend on a break, so you don’t get too distracted. Ten to 30 minutes is great for shorter breaks, and an hour or two is perfect for lunch.

5. Dress like you are at work

Work from Home Clothes
Even if you won’t be interacting with another person all day, it’s important to dress for success. This includes showering and brushing your teeth! This will tell your brain that it’s work time, not relaxation time, and that will give you a lot more energy. Sweatpants and a T-shirt might be more comfortable, but you may also feel sluggish, sleepy, or unmotivated.
It’s also a good opportunity to give a new outfit a test drive–risk free!
If you have a hard time motivating yourself to get ready in the morning, try laying out your outfit the night before, or planning an outing during the day so that you have to get dressed.

6. Create an at-home office

Work from home office
It might be tempting to work from your couch, easy-chair, or even from your bed, but this could take a huge toll on your productivity. Try to always work from a consistent room, desk, or chair, to tell your brain that it’s time for work, not relaxation.
You are likely to feel more alert, more confident, and more organized. Try setting up a desk where you always work. Set yourself up with a comfy, supportive chair, a spacious desk, and consistent workplace tools. Make sure to personalize your space. After all, you will be spending a lot of time there!

7. No roomies allowed

Working from home kids
Being efficient working from home is all about boundaries, as we have previously discussed. This also means setting boundaries for kids, pets, and your spouse or roommates. Try to encourage them to leave you alone while you are working so you can stay focused.
Try to keep the boundaries friendly and playful, but make sure you stick to them. One fun idea is to make a sign for the door of your office that indicates whether you’re working or not.

8. Be your own janitor

Work from home mess
Unlike in the office, you don’t have a janitor to clean up after you, which means you have to do it yourself. Keeping your home office clean helps you stay focused, get organized, and be productive. Even if you’re someone who isn’t bothered by a messy desk, keeping some semblance of order helps ensure that nothing important falls through the cracks (or gets lost in a stack of paper, as is more likely).
However, this tip goes beyond just keeping your home office clean. Having a messy home could inspire you to procrastinate on work tasks in favor of cleaning–which is bad news for your productivity.
Setting yourself a weekly cleaning schedule can help you keep on top of cleaning your home, so you won’t be tempted to clean during work hours. Make sure to schedule regular tidying of your home office!

9. Tune in to inspiration

Work from Home music
A great advantage of working from home is that you can’t distract your coworkers. Go ahead and play those pumped-up jams loud and proud, if that’s what gets you moving. Or try a more soothing soundtrack, with nature sounds, instrumental music, or even by leaving the windows open to let the sounds from outside come in. If you’re doing repetitive tasks, an audiobook or podcast may even be what you need to keep moving.
Try a few things to find what works best for you.

10. Stay in the loop

Work from home call
One of the best things about working in an office is the potential for collaboration and socialization. You don’t have to lose this just because you are working from home. Try to check in with your coworkers at least a couple of times per week, whether by email, phone, Skype, or even in person.
Make sure you keep up on a personal level as well as a professional level. You can do this without taking a lot of time–just share the things that are most important, and encourage your coworkers to do the same.
If you can master these 10 tips, you will be a work-from-home wizard before you know it. You might even find that the days you work from home are your most productive days!

Friday, 20 March 2020

Looking Beyond The Moment

A lot is being said about the outbreak of coronavirus. There is panic among share market investors in India. Even our investors are expecting us to give them a lot more clarity in the current time.
Here are 5 small points that the share markets in India are ignoring completely, may be due to panic, but we would want you to look at to understand how the current situation should be looked at, why this is not the time to panic but to look for opportunities:

1. Coronavirus - Threat To Our Health, But Good For The Economy's Fiscal Health

If we go by the current rate of crude oil $35-$40 a barrel, India is saving $20-$30 bn on crude oil imports. This amounts to 0.5% to 0.8% of our GDP. It is a huge saving for us as a country - whether government decides to pass on this saving to the consumers or keep it to improve its fiscal math, the fact remains it will definitely boost investments into our country if government keeps it with them. And, if they decide to reduce the petrol and diesel prices and pass on this benefit to the end consumer, it will improve the consumer spending which will further boost the economy.

2. Boost To 'Make in India'?

Apart from crude price, as a country we import other items worth approx. $300 bn a year and export revenue also comes around $300 bn a year. Now for a country of our size, i.e. $3 tn GDP, these figures show how less dependent we are on the world economy. Yes, there would be a few items which if we couldn't import, will adversely impact the performance of a few sectors or prices will go higher for some items. But let's not forget 2 things -
a. We are capable of manufacturing most of the items that we import in our country. Yes, we may have to pay a little higher, but as you know it gives boost to manufacturing in our country and helps in bringing growth in the economy.
b. If we look at the monthly figures, it is $25 bn import and $25 bn export every month. 1 or 2 or 3 months disruption will not be able to impact these figures by more than $25-$50 bn. So how much we really need to be concerned about this? We believe very little!

3. History Is Also Saying - Don't Panic!

Share markets in India have gone down by more than 20% in the last 15 days. We tried to give a lot of reasoning to understand if such a steep fall could be justified by the outbreak of coronavirus as it is widely believed. As I write to you, we have a total of 1,26,666 reported cases worldwide, 73 in India and China the epicenter of this disease reported only 18 new cases today.
Now if I may request you to rewind your memory by 15-20 days, you will realize China was reporting most number of new cases and exactly 20 days later we are not discussing China anymore.
After China, it was South Korea reporting most number of new cases for a few days, now even they have reduced to 114 new cases reported today. Today Europe is reporting most number of new cases followed by the USA, who knows like China and South Korea 15 days later, the kind of measures these countries are taking, they will also show a steep reduction in new cases. And 1 month later we all will forget about this.
You may do this exercise and check that most viruses including Ebola, Sars, Mers in the past have peaked in 2 to 3 months and we are already in the third month since the outbreak of coronavirus.
Honestly speaking, we could not understand how come long term prospects of a good business whether in our country or for that matter in any other country have changed so much in 15-20 days that it could justify the kind of fall we have observed in the share markets in India as well as in the other markets. If I may go to the extend saying this fall is irrational in our understanding, and in fact offers an excellent opportunity to a genuine long term investor who is serious about his wealth creation journey.

4. Glass Half Full Or Half Empty - Depends On How You Look At It

As we have seen in the USA, FED has cut the interest rates by 0.5 percent, Bank of England has cut interest rates by 0.5 percent. What we believe, given this outbreak for the foreseeable future, there is no risk of inflation. Hence, the entire focus will be on boosting the growth worldwide, so we are expecting interest rates will be cut by most other countries including India to boost growth.
What it means for you and me - (a) it becomes cheaper to borrow money (b) helps in increasing consumer spending and hence boosting the growth (c) it becomes more attractive to invest in a little riskier asset class like equity since you are not getting enough by investing into debt instruments - bond, FD etc.
Interest rate reduction is not the only stimulus, most people in almost all the affected countries are expecting their respective central banks to announce even other stimulus to boost confidence and boost growth.
This will result into excess liquidity available and finding avenues to invest, as I said in such a situation, equity as an asset class emerges as the best asset class, and India as a country emerges as one of the most preferred destination.

5. Are You All Set For The Takeoff?

Finally what you have heard in most of the interviews given by the share market experts off late, this outbreak provides an excellent opportunity for India to attract some of the companies to set up their manufacturing base in the country.
Yes, we have reduced corporate tax rate and this surely have made it more lucrative for international companies to set up their base in India. Now, it is about taking swift action and ensuring we provide all other infrastructural support and approvals if we are serious about capitalizing on this opportunity as a country.